March 29, 2017

Close GOP Contest for Delaware Senate

The most recent poll of the GOP primary contest for Vice President Joe Biden’s former Senate seat in Delaware shows Christine O’Donnell ahead of Michael Castle 47% to 44%. Despite Castle being the establishment candidate and having a substantial fundraising advantage over O’Donnell, as the chart below shows with Castle leading each financial category, O’Donnell has been able to receive endorsements from Jim DeMint, Sarah Palin, and the National Rifle Association.

Additionally, while only 25% of Republicans in Delaware identify as a part of the Tea Party, an overwhelming 79% support O’Donnell. As a result, a victory for O’Donnell in tomorrow’s primary would represent another Tea Party outsider overtaking the established Republican candidate. The PPP poll [.pdf] referenced above interviewed 668 Republicans and has a ±3.8% margin of error.

Considering the most recent poll and Castle's cash position, he should spend more.

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