March 29, 2017

Midterm Senate Comparison

Among the last 17 midterm cycles – dating back to 1942 – the President’s party has lost an average of 3.4 Senate seats in each election. Similarly, the 1st midterm cycle for each President averages a loss of 3.1 Senators. There is a clear trend for a President’s party to do poorly in midterm cycles. In fact, the President’s party has picked up Senators in only 3 of the last 17 midterm cycles (’62,’70, & ’02). Further, among the 1st midterm cycle for each President, as well as the last 17 midterm cycles, the worst year for a President is 1946 when Truman lost 12 Senators. Eisenhower also lost 12 Senators in his 2nd midterm cycle in 1958. According to these trends of how Presidents fare in midterm cycles, the 2010 cycle will likely result with an above average shift in the Senate. If the election was today, the President’s party would lose 8 Senators – the same number that both Clinton and Bush Sr. lost in each of their 1st midterms, yet still well above the 3.1 average.

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  1. Reposted it. Greetings from the Speedy DNS.

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