Even though Obama’s approval rating has gone up in the past month, this increase hasn’t correlated with other Democrats also doing better in the polls. In fact, there are currently 10 Democratic Senate seats that Republicans could pick up in November including: Colorado, Illinois, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Washington, Pennsylvania, North Dakota, Arkansas, and Indiana. Though, the first 6 of these 10 races are currently considered toss-ups, so they are by no means sure wins for Republicans, but merely possibilities. However, the last 4 of these 10 races are sure pick ups for Republicans – meaning Republicans will have at least 45 Senate seats after the election.
Most importantly, since Republicans currently have 41 Senate seats, how the 6 aforementioned toss-ups result will determine which party controls the Senate. Republicans could have 45 or as many as 51 Senators in November. If Democrats lost 10 Senate seats, this would be the 3rd worst outcome among the last 18 midterm elections. The only Senate seat Republicans could lose to Democrats is Kentucky, which is currently a toss up between Democratic candidate Jack Conway and Republican candidate Rand Paul.