March 26, 2017

Kentucky Senate Race Widens

The 7 polls of the Kentucky Senate race conducted since September show Republican candidate Rand Paul with a lead over Democratic candidate Jack Conway. One of the polls has had Paul leading by as much as 13%, while others show Paul with as little as a 3% lead, but the median of these latest polls show a decisive 7% lead for Paul. At the end of September, Conway had pulled within 2% of Paul and the race was considered as a toss up, but this race is now leaning Republican and on the verge of being safely Republican.

An additional factor favors Paul in this race. At the end of September, Conway had raised about $400,000 more and had spent about $60,000 more than Paul. A month and a half later, Paul has now raised almost $2 million more and spent $1.7 million more than Conway, as the chart below shows – signaling a shift in campaign finances favoring Paul. With this shift in campaign finances combined with the shift in all of the the latest polls, Paul is the clear favorite of this race. The Kentucky Senate seat had previously been considered as the only Republican Senate seat at any sort of risk of becoming Democratic in 2010, but now Republicans have a low likelihood of losing any of their current seats.

Paul has out-raised and outspent Conway since the end of September.

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