March 26, 2017

Tea Party Senate Race Facts

Among the 8 Senate candidates affiliated with the Tea Party, 4 are poised for victory: Marco Rubio of Florida, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Mike Lee of Utah, and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin. Three of the remaining 4 candidates are in toss-up races, AK, NV, & CO, while the race in Delaware favors Democrats. Within a few days, there could be 7 Senators who are in the Tea Party. The chart below shows each Tea Party candidate and the status of each race, as well as the fact that none of the 8 candidates have ever held a federally elected position.

Also, 2 of the 8 candidates, Joe Miller of AK and Marco Rubio of FL, triggered a 3rd party candidate to enter the race in each of their states. While Rubio has a comfortable double-digit lead, Miller is having particular trouble finishing the job on the Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski. After Miller won the primary, Murkowski kept on fighting and is running a write-in campaign. Since late September, Murkowski has gained 7% in the polls and Miller has declined 7% during the same period – indicating Murkowski is taking support from Miller. Even though Murkowski and Miller are splitting the Republican vote, there are still not enough Democrats in Alaska for an upset.

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